Top End cyclone danger moved to Tuesday

THERE is a moderate risk of a cyclone forming late on Tuesday.

A weak tropical low has formed more than 100km north of the Arnhem coast in the Arafura Sea.

The low is expected to move west or southwest towards the Timor Sea and slowly deepen.

A cyclone could affect the Kimberley coast by this Wednesday.

Weather Bureau senior forecaster Rebecca Patrick said that the path of the low-pressure system was unpredictable.

"It may well move over land or water," Ms Patrick told the Sunday Territorian.

RELATED COVERAGE

• Cyclone risk increased to moderate
• Wet week ahead for Top End

YOUR SAY

"Look up the BOM 4 day forecast map, that always tells the most probable outcome. unlike the current media sensationalism."
Kenny

"There will still be a lot of rain," she said.

There is a low chance of a cyclone occurring today and tomorrow.

Ms Patrick said there will certainly be strong north-westerly winds if the trough moves to the west.

That will please Darwin surfers.

The low is in a weak monsoon trough over the Arafura Sea and is threatening to become more active as it moves closer to the Top End coast.

The Weather Bureau is warning of flooding today in the Top End.

Thunderstorms and isolated showers of up to 80mm may lead to localised flooding and higher water levels in creeks.

Darwin was hit by a few millimetres of rain yesterday, while Alice Springs is getting sunny conditions with temperatures in the mid-30s.

Adelaide River had the most rainfall in the 24 hours to the time of writing, with 51mm of rain.

Byrnec@ ntnews.com.au

Cyclone risk in lead-up to Christmas

CONOR BYRNE   |  December 18th, 2011  NT News

A CYCLONE has been predicted to skirt the NT coast before Christmas.

And today Darwin weather bureau forecasters will discuss increasing the cyclone risk outlook.

Brisbane stormchaser Ben Quinn takes data from an American weather model and extrapolates it eight days ahead on his website to show this cyclone forming on December 23.

SEE: Reader photos of the storm season kick-off for 2011

Both Mr Quinn and weather bureau senior forecaster Ashley Patterson said forecasting tropical weather - especially cyclones - so far in advance could be inaccurate and that other models were not yet predicting a cyclone.

But Mr Patterson said it was not to be ruled out, and predicts a low pressure system forming in a monsoon trough off the coast."There is an increased chance of a cyclone forming," he said.

"It's still uncertain so far out, but looking at the current block of models. It's possible."

The Darwin weather bureau looks at about four or five weather models when predicting cyclones.

"They all go for a monsoon trough to build over the next three to six days, and they indicate a weak low (pressure system) in the trough," he said.

"But that could be anywhere between Timor and the Gulf of Carpentaria.

"The models haven't come into agreement so there's a lot of uncertainty.

"I can't say for sure there's going to be a cyclone; there will be a developing low off the coast later in the week."

Mr Quinn's website predicts that the cyclone would smash the Kimberley coast at about 6.30am on Christmas Eve.

His data, from the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is updated every six hours based on current data.

"You can't accurately put a category on it. I'm not even going to have a guess," Mr Quinn said.